1 - Financial markets spent last week in a bit of a holding pattern as investors awaited the outcome of the European Union summit in Brussels. While most leaders of the 27 EU members reached a tepid accord (Great Britain demurred), they really did not appear to accomplish the big splash that investors had been hoping for.
2 - Economists are now talking openly about (1) the likelihood that Europe is already in a new recession, and (2) the possibility that the eurozone -- the 17 EU members who all use the common currency -- could come apart. The Wall Street Journal reported last week that member nations are tuning up their printing presses -- just in case they need to start churning out currencies of their own.
3 - We're gearing up for the end of the year: making sure all clients with annual required minimum distributions (RMDs) have taken them by the end of this month, clearing up lingering cost basis issues, and making sure client portfolios are properly positioned to ring in 2012. It is a busy time, but you know us: we're having fun doing what we do.
Have a wonderful week -- and please do your Christmas shopping locally!
-Andy
In case you missed it, On December 1 we hosted a holiday event for clients and their guests. We enjoyed a sumptuous dinner by Pat Strother, delectable cheesecake bars by Juliet, and Frank Capra's timeless film It's a Wonderful Life. Michele did a great job planning and setting up. For the privacy of our clients, our videographer Erik Olsen took care not to show faces (other than us worker bees). Enjoy this one-minute video recap.
Showing posts with label it's a wonderful life. Show all posts
Showing posts with label it's a wonderful life. Show all posts
Monday, December 12, 2011
Monday, December 5, 2011
Replaying The Global Economy's Effects on Investors
1 - Talk about volatility. Despite the best week for U.S. stocks in almost three years, we are still slightly behind where we were just two weeks ago. This week promises to be just as rocky, as the leaders of the 27 nations constituting the European Union meet Friday to consider binding themselves into a closer political union. If they can do it, it could be an extremely promising signal to financial markets. If they can't, well....
2 - Last night, Bloomberg ran an excellent article outlining the important issues surrounding this week's meetings in Europe. If you have an interest in understanding the situation, I commend it to your attention. Click here to read it. In addition, last week's video commentary is just as applicable this week as it was then, so we're running it again below.
3 - Last Thursday evening, about 55 clients and guests set aside their worries and kicked off the holiday season in the Depot Room. We enjoyed hot cider, a fabulous Pat Strother-catered dinner, Juliet's homemade cheesecake bars, and and It's a Wonderful Life on the big screen. I was taken aback by the large number of attendees who said they had never seen the movie before; of course, they all loved it. Even for those of us who had seen it many times, its theme -- the notion that real wealth lies in doing good for others -- resounded once again. There's something about watching a classic film the way it was intended to be seen -- on the silver screen in a darkened room and surrounded by an appreciative audience -- that makes for a special experience. For those clients who have been unable to attend one of our "dinner and a movie" events, I hope you can make the next one.
Be thankful for our wonderful community. Have a terrific week -- and remember: do your Christmas shopping locally!
-Andy
We ran this video with last week's update, but it applies just as much this week as it did then. And since quite a few readers didn't watch it, we're running it again. It takes a very brief look at (1) the U.S. and European economic picture; (2) its potential implications for investors; and (3) what we're doing about it at Millard & Company.
2 - Last night, Bloomberg ran an excellent article outlining the important issues surrounding this week's meetings in Europe. If you have an interest in understanding the situation, I commend it to your attention. Click here to read it. In addition, last week's video commentary is just as applicable this week as it was then, so we're running it again below.
3 - Last Thursday evening, about 55 clients and guests set aside their worries and kicked off the holiday season in the Depot Room. We enjoyed hot cider, a fabulous Pat Strother-catered dinner, Juliet's homemade cheesecake bars, and and It's a Wonderful Life on the big screen. I was taken aback by the large number of attendees who said they had never seen the movie before; of course, they all loved it. Even for those of us who had seen it many times, its theme -- the notion that real wealth lies in doing good for others -- resounded once again. There's something about watching a classic film the way it was intended to be seen -- on the silver screen in a darkened room and surrounded by an appreciative audience -- that makes for a special experience. For those clients who have been unable to attend one of our "dinner and a movie" events, I hope you can make the next one.
Be thankful for our wonderful community. Have a terrific week -- and remember: do your Christmas shopping locally!
-Andy
We ran this video with last week's update, but it applies just as much this week as it did then. And since quite a few readers didn't watch it, we're running it again. It takes a very brief look at (1) the U.S. and European economic picture; (2) its potential implications for investors; and (3) what we're doing about it at Millard & Company.
Tuesday, November 15, 2011
How About a Roller Coaster Ride?
1 - The stock market finished last week strong -- the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained over two percent on Friday. But as has been the case for several months, the real story is daily, stomach-turning volatility based on continuing uncertainty in Europe. The recent habit of stocks to soar or plunge based on a single day's news, only to reverse direction following the next headline, is troubling to say the least. It's starkly obvious that investors know nothing beyond the present moment, so for a while at least, the present moment will dictate the movement of the markets. Clearly, caution continues to be the order of the day.
2 - The latest eurozone country to cause concern is Italy -- and this time we're talking about a major economy, the eighth-largest in the world. World markets reacted favorably to Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's resignation and replacement by economist Mario Monti, but that country's troubles are far from over. Read "Uncertainty Over Italy" below for a thumbnail description of the situation and its potential ramifications.
3 - Reservations for our upcoming Client Dinner and a Movie event are coming in fast. We already have about 35 RSVPs, and we're looking for more. You know that we're going to watch It's a Wonderful Life, but here's the twist: we're going to see the colorized version. Like many people, I generally enjoy seeing vintage movies in their original black and white, but I really think you'll enjoy the high-def colorized version. The colors are vivid and natural, and with a film as familiar as this one, the addition of color allows you to experience it in a whole new way. Come with an open mind, and prepare to be amazed. Click here to RSVP if you haven't already done so.
4 - Check out the video below; the topic is change, and it will leave your head spinning.
Have a glorious week!
-Andy
2 - The latest eurozone country to cause concern is Italy -- and this time we're talking about a major economy, the eighth-largest in the world. World markets reacted favorably to Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's resignation and replacement by economist Mario Monti, but that country's troubles are far from over. Read "Uncertainty Over Italy" below for a thumbnail description of the situation and its potential ramifications.
3 - Reservations for our upcoming Client Dinner and a Movie event are coming in fast. We already have about 35 RSVPs, and we're looking for more. You know that we're going to watch It's a Wonderful Life, but here's the twist: we're going to see the colorized version. Like many people, I generally enjoy seeing vintage movies in their original black and white, but I really think you'll enjoy the high-def colorized version. The colors are vivid and natural, and with a film as familiar as this one, the addition of color allows you to experience it in a whole new way. Come with an open mind, and prepare to be amazed. Click here to RSVP if you haven't already done so.
4 - Check out the video below; the topic is change, and it will leave your head spinning.
Have a glorious week!
-Andy
Tuesday, October 25, 2011
A Perspective on Global Risk Factors
1 - Another slight gain in the stock market last week has done little to improve the general feeling of unease regarding both the global economy and the financial markets. There are so many unsettling factors at work that it's difficult to be optimistic, at least for the near term. But it's important to remember that it is during just such times that the stock market historically has had some of its most impressive rallies.
2 - To get a perspective on one of those global risk factors -- the situation in Europe -- I invite you to view the brief video by visiting Millard & Company Home Page (if you can get past the sight of my currently stitched-up face). Below is this week's economic news, is an article describing some of the concerns surrounding the domestic stock market:
Has Wall Street Learned From 2008?
Some market bears think very little has changed. They could be right.
Memories of 2008 are still fresh: The credit crisis; the collapse of Lehman Brothers and Washington Mutual; the federal takeover of Fannie and Freddie; the market downturn. There's little doubt Wall Street would like to erase it all from its conscience, and maybe it has.
Part of the anger of the Occupy Wall Street movement comes from the perception that nothing has changed. While the Dodd-Frank Act (designed to make the financial system more accountable and transparent) is now taking effect, the Volcker Rule (intended to stop banks from trading for their own accounts) may be watered down or put off. Beyond that, the U.S. economic recovery from the Great Recession has sputtered and made people question the recent bullish sentiment.
Stocks have rebounded strongly since 2009, but there are still many factors to worry about; this may lead to a little contrarian thinking.
This bull market may be a diversion from a longer term bear market. For most of 2011, the S&P 500 has been above 1,200 (a great rebound from the March 2009 low of 676). What was behind that? The short answer: a weak dollar. We haven't exactly had a boom economy in that timeframe.1,2
Some analysts look at Wall Street right now and see a rerun of the 1970s, when you had momentous rallies masking a bear market that went from 1967-82. In addition, researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco are concerned about the possibility of a generational sell off; a potential market "headwind" for 10 or 20 years stemming from greying Baby Boomers getting out of stocks as they get closer to retirement, countered only partly by overseas investment.3,4
What has changed on Wall Street since 2008? Perhaps not much. The general perception that the CEOs of the big investment banks and mortgage companies whose thoughtlessness contributed to the Great Recession met with no real consequence seems to be taking hold, as evidenced by the Occupy Wall Street movement.
By the way, remember the furor directed at risky derivatives trading? In September 2011, the Comptroller of the Currency had recorded an 11% year-over-year increase in derivatives investment in the banking industry. Banks now hold almost $250 trillion of the contracts.5
A truly severe punishment of Wall Street would come at a dear price for Washington. Some of the biggest names from Wall Street (and the real estate sector) have also been major lobbyists and campaign contributors. According to the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics, the National Association of Realtors has contributed more than $40 million to federal-level political campaigns since 1989; Goldman Sachs has contributed almost $36 million since then, and Citigroup nearly $29 million. The financial, insurance and real estate industries have collectively spent over $4.6 billion in lobbying efforts since 1998.6,7
What is happening with the recovery? Not much. Whileunemployment is above 9%, underemployment is the real story - in September, 16.5% of Americans worked less than 40 hours a week. No wonder homes sit on the market and consumer spending increases mostly in response to rising food and energy prices. Wages even retreated 0.2% in September and incomes fell 0.1% - the first monthly decrease in income since October 2009. Assorted 2012 forecasts see slow or slowing growth in various European and Asian nations.8,9
Is there a bright side for Wall Street? Actually, there could be. The European Union is making decisive moves to address its debt crisis. Indicators still show that our economy is growing, not contracting; September was the best month for U.S. retail sales since March. Many analysts think that the Dodd-Frank regulations will discernibly impact the Wall Street mindset. Lastly, the strength and duration of seemingly every major bull market has been questioned by the bears; history might record that a secular bull market began in 2009, after all.10
Only time will tell. Over the years, the stock market has faced some great challenges - and risen to meet them again and again. This time around, the hope is that Wall Street's behavior (and behavioral assumptions) won't sabotage the rally.
3 - Please note in the "Upcoming Events" that we have two new events on the schedule. The first is a special client dinner-and-a- movie night scheduled for Thursday, December 1, when we will watch the great holiday classic It's a Wonderful Life. (You can sign up for this celebration by clicking here.) The second is the rescheduled panel discussion on New Realities: The Global Economy, which will take place in mid-January.
4 - One week from today is Tryon's annual Halloween Stroll beginning at 4:00pm. Most of the downtown businesses close early in order to host hundreds of costumed children and their parents during the annual trick-or-treat ritual. I am privileged to again emcee the costume contest, which is always a hoot (6:00 in the Tryon Movie Theater). If you'd like to have some fun and help Juliet and me distribute candy at any time between 4:00 and 6:00, feel free to stop by the Depot. (We're racking our brains to come up with semi-healthy treats to give away; if you have any suggestions, let us know soon!)
Enjoy this beautiful fall week!
-Andy
2 - To get a perspective on one of those global risk factors -- the situation in Europe -- I invite you to view the brief video by visiting Millard & Company Home Page (if you can get past the sight of my currently stitched-up face). Below is this week's economic news, is an article describing some of the concerns surrounding the domestic stock market:
Has Wall Street Learned From 2008?
Some market bears think very little has changed. They could be right.
Memories of 2008 are still fresh: The credit crisis; the collapse of Lehman Brothers and Washington Mutual; the federal takeover of Fannie and Freddie; the market downturn. There's little doubt Wall Street would like to erase it all from its conscience, and maybe it has.
Part of the anger of the Occupy Wall Street movement comes from the perception that nothing has changed. While the Dodd-Frank Act (designed to make the financial system more accountable and transparent) is now taking effect, the Volcker Rule (intended to stop banks from trading for their own accounts) may be watered down or put off. Beyond that, the U.S. economic recovery from the Great Recession has sputtered and made people question the recent bullish sentiment.
Stocks have rebounded strongly since 2009, but there are still many factors to worry about; this may lead to a little contrarian thinking.
This bull market may be a diversion from a longer term bear market. For most of 2011, the S&P 500 has been above 1,200 (a great rebound from the March 2009 low of 676). What was behind that? The short answer: a weak dollar. We haven't exactly had a boom economy in that timeframe.1,2
Some analysts look at Wall Street right now and see a rerun of the 1970s, when you had momentous rallies masking a bear market that went from 1967-82. In addition, researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco are concerned about the possibility of a generational sell off; a potential market "headwind" for 10 or 20 years stemming from greying Baby Boomers getting out of stocks as they get closer to retirement, countered only partly by overseas investment.3,4
What has changed on Wall Street since 2008? Perhaps not much. The general perception that the CEOs of the big investment banks and mortgage companies whose thoughtlessness contributed to the Great Recession met with no real consequence seems to be taking hold, as evidenced by the Occupy Wall Street movement.
By the way, remember the furor directed at risky derivatives trading? In September 2011, the Comptroller of the Currency had recorded an 11% year-over-year increase in derivatives investment in the banking industry. Banks now hold almost $250 trillion of the contracts.5
A truly severe punishment of Wall Street would come at a dear price for Washington. Some of the biggest names from Wall Street (and the real estate sector) have also been major lobbyists and campaign contributors. According to the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics, the National Association of Realtors has contributed more than $40 million to federal-level political campaigns since 1989; Goldman Sachs has contributed almost $36 million since then, and Citigroup nearly $29 million. The financial, insurance and real estate industries have collectively spent over $4.6 billion in lobbying efforts since 1998.6,7
What is happening with the recovery? Not much. Whileunemployment is above 9%, underemployment is the real story - in September, 16.5% of Americans worked less than 40 hours a week. No wonder homes sit on the market and consumer spending increases mostly in response to rising food and energy prices. Wages even retreated 0.2% in September and incomes fell 0.1% - the first monthly decrease in income since October 2009. Assorted 2012 forecasts see slow or slowing growth in various European and Asian nations.8,9
Is there a bright side for Wall Street? Actually, there could be. The European Union is making decisive moves to address its debt crisis. Indicators still show that our economy is growing, not contracting; September was the best month for U.S. retail sales since March. Many analysts think that the Dodd-Frank regulations will discernibly impact the Wall Street mindset. Lastly, the strength and duration of seemingly every major bull market has been questioned by the bears; history might record that a secular bull market began in 2009, after all.10
Only time will tell. Over the years, the stock market has faced some great challenges - and risen to meet them again and again. This time around, the hope is that Wall Street's behavior (and behavioral assumptions) won't sabotage the rally.
3 - Please note in the "Upcoming Events" that we have two new events on the schedule. The first is a special client dinner-and-a- movie night scheduled for Thursday, December 1, when we will watch the great holiday classic It's a Wonderful Life. (You can sign up for this celebration by clicking here.) The second is the rescheduled panel discussion on New Realities: The Global Economy, which will take place in mid-January.
4 - One week from today is Tryon's annual Halloween Stroll beginning at 4:00pm. Most of the downtown businesses close early in order to host hundreds of costumed children and their parents during the annual trick-or-treat ritual. I am privileged to again emcee the costume contest, which is always a hoot (6:00 in the Tryon Movie Theater). If you'd like to have some fun and help Juliet and me distribute candy at any time between 4:00 and 6:00, feel free to stop by the Depot. (We're racking our brains to come up with semi-healthy treats to give away; if you have any suggestions, let us know soon!)
Enjoy this beautiful fall week!
-Andy
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